Trusting the forecast
As we enter our third week of unusually unsettled weather in the Solent, I am feeling increasingly land locked! Winds of over 50 knots hit us again yesterday accompanied with torrential showers. Classic examples of passing weather fronts- one minute the Isle of wight can be clearly seen and then it completely disappears.
All credit to the Met Office as their current forecasts are really spot on and are helping greatly in our decision to run with or postpone a course.
I’m not sure what the difference is, but back over the summer months the forecasts from the Met Office often under-estimated the wind strength that we were sailing in which became a focal point of conversation between skippers and their crew.
Having had similar experiences from forecasts, Tom Cunliffe suggests that we need to consider ’signs from heaven’ too. Red sky at night, sailors delight and red sky in the morning, sailors warning are two prognosis which many of us have heard.
An old square-rigger’s tip he suggests is more often right that not relates to approaching squalls:
‘If the rain’s before the wind,
Tops’l sheets and halyards mind.
If the wind’s before the rain,
Tops’ls soon you’ll set again’
If you have other obscure means of forecasting, we’d love to hear from you. You can add you comments to the Skippers Blog section of our Forum http://www.yachting-school.co.uk/forum/index.php
You can read Tom Cunliffe’s article in the RYA Member’s Magazine Winter 2009
